Refrigerant price prediction and industry development trend

refrigerant is mainly used in air conditioners, refrigerators and cars use air conditioning refrigeration, its requirements include produce and repair replacement category, so demand and output value of the air conditioners, refrigerators, cars and ownership are closely related. The standard air conditioning, the refrigerator as, bridal chamber is decorated, its demand and real estate sale situation closely related, lagging behind real estate sale cycle 6 - general demand cycle 12 months. Since 2016, our country real estate market heat constantly improve, sale adhere to increase rapidly. Area of 22 real estate sales throughout the year. 5%, is expected to pull the air conditioning and refrigeration category demand this year. This year 2 - In April, China's air conditioning output growth is 17. 6%, refrigerator production growth is 12. Growth rate was greatly increased over the same period last year, 4%, is expected to drive the refrigerant category requirements. In terms of cars, car production in China in recent years the overall stability increased. All of 2016 output value of 2819 sedan. 310000, year-on-year increase in 11. 1%. This year 1 - In April, China's car accumulative total output value of 952. 70000, year-on-year increase in 6. 9%. There is a steady increase in car production, under the propulsion of refrigerant demand increased overall stability estimated car category. Refrigerant in the 2009 - The cyclical highs in 2011, because a lot of capacity on the lead to overcapacity, product prices continue downward, professional sentiment is declining, corporate profits can also falling. Follow professional long time low, part of backward production capacity beginning gradually exit, professional production capacity to start the process of open. Now the third generation of refrigerant R134a has a production capacity, R32 and R125 withdrew from the ups and downs all around 20%. Follow capacity gradually exit and the increase of demand, the third generation of refrigerant capacity has reached to more than 70% recovery level, professional business recovery.

in the third generation of refrigerant capacity start out together, the second generation of refrigerant R22 has been in place since 2013, when the beginning quota system to strictly control the production. R - Because of the ozone layer is destructive and Montreal protocol for screening R - 22 time schedule made specific provision. Beginning in 2010, sharply reduce the R - developed countries 22 capacity, capacity now focused on developing countries mainly in our country. Beginning in 2013 beginning of R22 yield implement quota management in our country, the production of frozen, beginning in 2015 for output decreases, and will complete the R - 2030 22 thorough screening. Since 2015 our country fruit of R22 quota fell 10% to 27. 40000 tons. In domestic production quotas to 18. 90000 tons, the other eight. 50000 tons for export. R22 yield of 2020, China's quota will be further reduced by 35%, further shorten the supply. With continuously shortening of the production quotas, R - 22 the supply and demand is expected to gradually improve, promote professional sentiment. Also part of the fruit of the small and medium-sized enterprises (smes) unit estimates will not be able to reach the effect of planning and was forced to withdraw, promote the profession concentration degree to further improve.

since 2016, the chemical industry to produce category of environmental regulation significantly strengthened, bring huge impact for the supply of refrigerants. Environmental constraints of the primary refrigerant category is embodied in two aspects, on the one hand is the lack of environmental protection tightening in hydrofluoric acid raw materials supply, prices. Hydrofluoric acid to for, the production process of high requirement of environmental protection, security, and so on. Since 2016 environmental protection law enforcement across significantly strengthened, limited hydrofluoric acid starts advancing hydrofluoric acid price rose sharply. Hydrofluoric acid price since this year from the year of 6900 yuan/ton rose to 12500 yuan/ton, up 81. 16%. In addition, the key of hydrofluoric acid raw materials fluorite also because of lack of environmental elements starts, to further advance the hydrofluoric acid price increases. Hydrofluoric acid as the key material of fluorine refrigerant, hydrofluoric acid supply lack of refrigerant to start brought severe restrictions. R22 and R134a has a price from 9800 yuan/ton and 20000 yuan/ton rose to 15500 yuan/ton and 31000 yuan/ton, up 58 respectively. 16%, 55%. R125, R32 price from 23500 yuan/ton and 12000 yuan/ton rose to 80000 yuan/ton, 30000 yuan/ton, up 240. 43%, or 150%. General environmental factors are the main factors of this round of refrigerant prices.

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